Trend and seasonal analysis of annual one day maximum rainfall
Analysis of maximum annual one day rainfall
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21921/jas.v9i03.11014Keywords:
Trend analysis, Mann-Kendall’s test, Rainfall, Sen’s slope, SeasonalityAbstract
Saurashtra region is characterized by high temporal and spatial rainfall fluctuations. The daily maximum rainfall has a direct impact on the agricultural yield. It is thereby necessary to comprehend the trend changes in the annual daily maximum rainfall (ADMR). The daily rainfall data of 40 years (1981 to 2020), for 11 stations in Saurashtra was utilized for trend analysis of ADMR using Mann Kendall’s method and Sen’s slope method. It was revealed from the Mann-Kendall test that significant positive trends were exhibited at Dwarka and Surendranagar. Further, Sen’s slope and linear regression indicated that the ADMR at Rajkot and Surendranagar were having highest increasing trend. Trend analysis of ADMR contribution to annual rainfall showed negative trend indicating better temporal distribution of rainfall. It was also revealed that the extreme events of rainfall usually occurred uniformly on certain days of the year from the results of directional statistics.
References
Bihrat ÖN and Bayazit M. 2003. The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish journal of engineering and environmental sciences 27(4):247-51.
Burn DH. 1997. Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures. Journal of hydrology 202(1-4):212-30.
Carvalho JR, Assad ED, Oliveira AF and Pinto HS. 2014. Annual maximum daily rainfall trends in the Midwest, southeast and southern Brazil in the last 71 years. Weather and Climate Extremes 5:7-15.
Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Kapsomenakis J, Douvis KC, Tselioudis G and Zerefos CS. 2011. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11(12):3235-50.
Fisher NI. 1995. Statistical analysis of circular data. Cambridge university press.
Ghenim AN, Megnounif A. 2016. Variability and trend of annual maximum daily rainfall in northern Algeria. International Journal of Geophysics.
Goswami BN, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanan MS and Xavier PK. 2006. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science. 314(5804):1442-5.
Helsel DR and Hirsch RM. 2002. Statistical methods in water resources (Vol. 323). Reston, VA: US Geological Survey.
Kendall MG. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin, London.
Lacombe G, Smakhtin V and Hoanh CT. 2013. Wetting tendency in the Central Mekong Basin consistent with climate change-induced atmospheric disturbances already observed in East Asia. Theoretical and applied climatology 111(1):251-63.
Lin NH, Tsay SC, Maring HB, Yen MC, Sheu GR, Wang SH, Chi KH, Chuang MT, Ou-Yang CF, Fu JS and Reid JS. 2013. An overview of regional experiments on biomass burning aerosols and related pollutants in Southeast Asia: From BASE-ASIA and the Dongsha Experiment to 7-SEAS. Atmospheric Environment. 78:1-9.
Mann HB. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society 245-259.
Hadi Pour S, Harun SB, Shahid S. 2014. Genetic programming for the downscaling of extreme rainfall events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Atmosphere. 5(4):914-36.
Rajeevan M, Bhate J and Jaswal AK. 2008. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophysical research letters 35(18).
Saini A, Sahu N, Kumar P, Nayak S, Duan W, Avtar R and Behera S. 2020. Advanced rainfall trend analysis of 117 years over West Coast Plain and Hill Agro-climatic region of India. Atmosphere 11(11):1225.
Sen PK. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American statistical association 63(324):1379-89.
Szolgay J, Parajka J, Kohnová S and Hlavcová K. 2009. Comparison of mapping approaches of design annual maximum daily precipitation. Atmospheric Research 92(3):289-307.
Su BD, Jiang T and Jin WB. 2006. Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 83(1):139-51.
Tangang FT, Juneng L, Salimun E, Sei K, Halimatun M. 2012. Climate change and variability over Malaysia: gaps in science and research information. Sains Malaysiana. 41(11):1355-66.
Theil H. 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. Indagationes mathematicae 12(85):173.
Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Shahid S, Guan EH, Wu YX, Gao J, He RM. 2016. Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 1:81-99.
Zhang XC and Liu WZ. 2005. Simulating potential response of hydrology, soil erosion, and crop productivity to climate change in Changwu tableland region on the Loess Plateau of China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131(3-4):127-42.
