Study of precipitation trends and variability in the Mahi river basin and implications for climate change and water resources
Precipitation trends and climate impacts in Mahi river basin
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21921/jas.v12i02.15239Keywords:
Precipitation trends, Mann-Kendall test, Climate variability, Rainfall distribution, Climate change adaptationAbstract
This study analyzes average annual precipitation data from 19 districts between 1985 and 2022, revealing distinct patterns of variability and significant trends in rainfall distribution. Inter-annual fluctuations, including extreme precipitation events and dry spells, suggest the influence of climatic factors such as monsoon variations, El Niño or La Niña events, and regional environmental changes. Regions like Bharuch show anomalous peaks in rainfall, potentially linked to climate change, deforestation, or urbanization. Statistical analysis, using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, confirms a statistically significant upward trend in precipitation during the study period. The Mann-Kendall test produces a Kendall's Tau value of 0.349 and a p-value of 0.002, indicating a moderate positive correlation and a significant trend in average precipitation. Sen's slope analysis shows a positive slope of 0.372, indicating an average increase of 0.372 mm precipitation per year. The 95% confidence intervals for the slope and intercept confirm the reliability of the observed trends. Time series analysis illustrates precipitation fluctuations, with peaks during the monsoon season and dry years reflecting natural variability, but the general upward trend suggests broader climatic shifts. These findings have important implications for water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate change adaptation. As precipitation patterns become more variable, adaptive management strategies will be necessary to address the challenges posed by changing rainfall patterns. In conclusion, the study confirms a statistically significant upward trend in precipitation over the past 38 years, offering insights into regional climate change impacts on hydrology and highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies.
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