Drought trends and climate variability in India’s Mahi river basin
Drought and climate in Mahi basin
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21921/jas.v12i03.15245Keywords:
Climate variability, Drought indices, Precipitation patterns, Principal component analysis, Water resource managementAbstract
Climate variability and drought have emerged as critical concerns in semi-arid regions, where water resources are acutely sensitive to fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. The Mahi river basin in western India, encompassing Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, has been subject to limited comprehensive long-term studies despite its susceptibility to climate-induced hydrological stress. This study seeks to evaluate long-term trends in climate variables and drought patterns in the Mahi river basin from 1985 to 2022. Utilizing historical climate data and key drought indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) in conjunction with statistical tools such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we assess changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought severity. The results indicate a 1.2°C increase in average annual temperature and significant interannual variability in precipitation, contributing to more frequent and intense drought events. PCA results revealed that SPI and precipitation collectively account for 100% of the variance in drought behavior, underscoring their critical role in drought monitoring. These findings underscore the necessity for adaptive water resource management strategies to enhance resilience in the face of increasing climate variability.
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